David Coffaro Vineyard and Winery Winemaker's Diary

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Wednesday August 3, 2011

I have a minor degree in economics. I have always believed in balancing the budget. That is why I voted for Regan in 1980. He promised to balance the budget. He let me down. I was happy to see Clinton go in the right direction but he got sidetracked in his obsessions. I was disappointed in Bush and now we have Obama. He seems to be timid.

I have been so involved watching this debt crises debate I have forgotten to mention what I think about the stock market. I  sold 40% of my stock last week. I wished Obama would have invoked the 14th amendment but he chose not to. We now have a big problem. We have no stimulus to get the economy going again. WE DO NOT NEED to cut spending now. Let's not do what we did in 1937!! History may repeat itself. In 1937 we cut back on spending during the Depression in hope to balance the budget. That sent us into another depression. This time period is not as serious but we are heading into another recession unless we put people back to work. Infrastructure could help, but some in the Congress are not in favor of spending. If the recovery takes hold we then need to keep spending in balance. Bond rates continue to stay at historic lows so for the next few years we should see very little inflation and thus interest rates should stay low. Historically the Market will go up with low interest rates.

The market is over sold so I started buying back. I probably will be wrong for the short term like in 2008 but I plan to buy all the way down. I have faith in the US economy.

Later today or surely by the end of the week we should have in place all my new toys I talked about last week. I will have more to say later.

Thursday August 4, 2011

I have to get to bed before 10:30. I only need 6 hours of sleep but I have to be alert at 6:00am. I should be up at 5:30 when the jobs report comes out, but I rarely trade in the pre-market. The 10 year bond went to 2.50% today. Interest rates will stay down for 3 more years. The market will recover by the end of the year. We could see much lower prices but I will buy all the way down.

We have in place our Air Compressor and Nitrogen Generator. That is what we need to bottle our 2010 Zp2c on August 16 in time for our pick up party on the 20th and 21st.


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