David Coffaro Vineyard
          and Winery Winemaker's Diary

arrow August 25 - August 31, 2013

Monday August 26, 2013

We will do some more sugar tests tomorrow and confirm we will be harvesting Pinot Thursday. We will also do our first Zinfandel test.

As some of you know I am a big Raider fan, even when they were in Los Angeles. I became a Raider fan in 1967 and attended all the games in Oakland with season tickets until the 1986 season. I have still remained a fan but have been extremely disappointed since 2002. During those 20 years from 1967 through 1986 the Raiders won more games than anyone else in the NFL, 206. Dallas had 205 and had more losses because the Raiders had several ties. Pittsburgh won 4 Super Bowls in the 70's but won less games in those 10 years than the Raiders, Miami and Dallas. Of course part of my loyalty to the Raiders was because of their outstanding record. They may be the worst team in the NFL now but I remember the past........

8:00 Pm: This day started off with a bill that was unsuspected. I did hear the company who sold me a $8000 air compressor........which I did not believe I needed........ BUT the Nitrogen Generator company said it was necessary..........I do not think so to this day.

So while I was on vacation to Orange County a few weeks ago...........I heard of this service call

here is the service invoice I did not authorize to Air TECHNOLOGY West in Santa Rosa:

1.0    KS71 Separator Maintenance Kit 176.28 176.28
1.0    KO71 Oil Change Kit 33.00 33.00
1.0    07-K0083531 Oil, CS300 Hydrovane - 1 Gal 67.10 67.10
1.0    SEP DISPO Separator Disposal 5.00 5.00
1.0    OIL DISPO Oil Disposal Charge 3.00 3.00
1.0    VEH Vehicle/Surcharge to - from shop 31.00 31.00
3.0    LABOR 112 LABOR AND TRAVEL TIME (WO 120.00 360.00

A total of $700

I am so upset.................seriously I sent back several e-mails.........$67 for one gallon of oil.................I could go on...........I do not want to dwell on this but it has spoiled most of my day

There was one thing I saw on CNN that made be very upset.

I am 70 years old. I am sorry to some of you ladies out there, but i still notice girls, ladies and..........

I Missed the showing last night. I dislike timberlech......I usually correct my misspelling but I am not impressed with him........he looks like a person I do not want to socialize with.

SO today I saw on CNN some of what was interesting last night on the VMAs awards.

Wow, I like to look at ladies of all ages but Marly was not attractive.........I don't want to look up the right spelling........ I have been open in all my life.......... about anyone doing what ever they want .........except when they do something obscene. It looked like porn to me........Just my opinion.............

Ok I do not like women flaunting themselves.

8:30 Pm: I only was coaxed to attend one porn bar back in the 60's and I was disgusted......so here is what Bill Maher who I had to look up for spelling put it after last night's showing

""Watching VMAs. Haven't been in a strip club in a while, but good to see nothing has changed"

Sometimes Bill makes sense........

Tuesday August 27, 2013

After several e-mails to and from Air Technology, my last e-mail has not been responded to. I told them my warranty is invalid so why do I owe them money for service I did not authorize. If I don't hear back by tomorrow will send another e-mail. I am willing to pay for the parts.

We just finished sugar tests in the section of Pinot Noir for our red wine. We got 24.3 sugar. We could harvest Thursday but we figured there is no rush since the acids are still high. We are planing to harvest for sure next Tuesday. We also did a sample of Zinfandel from our 3rd block and came in with 22 brix. We should be ready in two weeks.

The stock market is finally down so I may  buy back some of my AAPL, AMZN and GOOG I sold a few weeks ago.

Wednesday August 28, 2013

I am holding off buying in the market. I enjoyed the festivities about 50 years ago.

Below is what i copied today from a place that sends me e-mails everyday. I usually agree with them, especially this time............and I agree the companies who are traded on these stock exchanges do not receive money from these trades. These companies have already made a public offering and sold their stock to the public. That is why they are called a public company. These companies have already received the money to run the operation. Unless the individuals running the company needs money by selling and then makes poor judgments in running the company, if the stock goes down to zero, it will not be important.............My wife and I own all the stock in our corporation. No one is trading our worth. Though, If we die, leave, or sell, that could be a factor in running the company.

OK here is what I copied

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

There are a lot of things to worry about as an investor. Hackers aren't one of them. 

Last week, hacker magazine 2600 described what a potential cyber attack on global stock markets could look like. It wrote (via Business Insider): 

Now imagine this attack scenario. Agents of an enemy of the United States successfully break into the mainframes of a High Frequency Trading Company, Dark Pool Crossing Network, or Brokerage Company. They infect the system with rogue trading algorithms or change the code on currently deployed algorithms. In a single coordinated attack, they buy and sell millions of shares of a single company or multiple companies, causing trading to halt or decimating the value of a single stock. Multiply that by 100 stocks of the top Fortune 500 companies and we have market collapse. Trading for the day would halt and uncalculated economic damage would be done.

Scary stuff -- until you get to the last sentence, which tiptoes into the absurd: "Uncalculated economic damage would be done."

Stop, stop. No, it wouldn't.   

The market is a thermometer. If your thermometer breaks and says it's 300 degrees outside, it isn't actually 300 degrees outside, and no one will actually burn to death. This is obvious when thinking about temperature, but it becomes easy to forget when thinking about stock prices and the businesses they measure. Money is just emotional like that. 

To assume a hacker-driven market crash would cause vast economic damage, you have to assume that day-to-day stock prices have an influence on the businesses they represent. But they do not. It's the other way around -- the underlying businesses are what drive stock prices. In a hacker attack, Coca-Cola stock might temporarily fall to $0, but Coke isn't going to stop selling Coke, the bakery won't stop selling bread, and brick layers won't stop laying bricks. Things would get real itchy on Wall Street exchanges, but broad business values and economic activity wouldn't change an inch. 

Last week, the Nasdaq experienced a technical snafu that halted trading in all the stocks listed on its exchange for three hours. What impact did it have on the economy? Nothing, really. A few Nasdaq executives might lose their bonuses, and a few day traders might have been left hanging. The economic damage of both was likely offset by journalists having something new to write about.  

We don't have to guess what an attack shutting down the stock market might do to the economy. We've experienced it. U.S. markets closed for six days following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. And while the actual terrorist attacks affected all kinds of businesses -- airlines and theme parks and such -- I can't think of a good argument for why keeping the market closed for a few days led to a measurable drop in economic activity. After the Flash Crash of 2010 sent the Dow Jones down 1,000 points before rebounding, a group of Motley Fool writers set out to find anyone -- investors or otherwise -- who had been negatively affected by the incident. They couldn't find one. Most investors didn't even realize it happened until long after it was over and stocks recovered. Of course, most people aren't concerned when the market remains closed every Saturday and Sunday. It causes no problems for the same reason a hacker crash would have no direct impact on economic activity: There is a vast difference between stock quotes, business values, and economic activity. 

One of the most fundamental traps investors fall for is not realizing the difference between business values and stock prices. Business values are driven by human ingenuity, creativity, brand awareness, patents, contracts, and ideas. Stock prices are just short-term quotes on what other people are willing to pay for those assets at a given moment. When you conflate the two, you become a victim to the stock market's ups and downs rather than a beneficiary of a business's profits. 

Cyber attacks could wreak havoc on the economy if targeted at actual commerce: Supply chains, energy pipelines, or payment systems, for example. That's what people should worry about. But as Warren Buffet says, you should buy companies you'd be happy owning if the market shut down for the next decade. Bring it on, hackers. 

Saturday August 31, 2013

I drove a Tesla Model S today. A team of young people drove up from San Rafael to take appointments to test drive on a very winding road in Forestville, about 20 miles from our winery. I think I have said in the past I actually put down $5,000 on one of the first to receive a Tesla Model S about two years ago. I decided to ask for my money back when it took so long and when I found out there were few places to charge, especially up the Oregon Coast. That has changed somewhat and now Tesla is offering Supercharge stations for free which will charge 50% in 20 minutes, enough for 150 miles. Soon there will be over 100 on major highways. I could go on about my research about the possibility to navigate up the Oregon Coast but I wanted to mention the most impressive thing about the test drive......

I loved the way it handled!! As some of you know I love stick shifts and I love BMW's so I was not happy when the first thing the assistant told me was it was one speed automatic, not even a shift to control the speed BUT that does not tell the whole story........I did not use the break once even at stops!! The Tesla anticipates your style of driving. When you go around a turn and slow down it automatically acts like shifting down with compression. When you slow down going into a stop its like putting on the break as it slows to a stop. The interior is not too fancy except for the 17-inch touch-screen center console.....wow.........



For any comments or questions I encourage any of you to e-mail.....david@coffaro.com

Dave


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