August 7 - August 20, 2011

	Saturday August 13, 2011 We have been away for a week. My Mother, Vivien 89, had a mild heart attack. She is home, stable and we are hoping for the best. We bottle the 2010 Zp2c Tuesday just in time for our Pick-up party on the 20th and 21st. We hope to see many of you for food, wine and rock. Monday August 15, 2011 Last week was one of the most interesting and scary times to trade in the stock market. If we ever break the lows of last week we will go much lower. There was massive volume and great gyrations forming a "diamond". Way back in the 70's while trading Sugar in the commodity market I learned a little more about technical analysis. The strongest formation is a "diamond". Very few times have I seen this formation. It occurred last week. A diamond formation starts with violent swings up and down and the swings become more violent over two days so that the highs are higher and the lows are lower with one big spike down and up which occurred last week on Tuesday during the last one hour and a half where the Dow Jones Industrials went from 10620 to close at 11230, a move of over 600 points in a little over one hour. The 10 hours of trading before and 10 hours after completed the diamond with wings less intense until the breakout on Friday above 11230. This is a classic signal for a move to the upside of at least 600 points. I have reinvested most of my money at lower prices. I could be wrong.  Friday August 19, 2011 My Mother is back in the hospital. I seems the damage to her heart is more extensive. I was back down to see her in San Mateo, over two hours away from here. I am back now for our event this weekend. With all the confusion I have decided to sell most of my positions in the stock market. I had profits in Amazon and Google and those two tech stocks have not been doing well lately so it was time to take a break. Amazon and Google have been doing well for over two years so I am fortunate. The market is in a very vulnerable situation. If the Dow closes below 10600, we could see much lower prices. Right now we are at 10950 as I write at 9:30Am. 9pm Today has been interesting because there has been many decisions to be made. Also our pick up party is tomorrow. On  passion, I wanted to comment on the Market again: I have sold more than half my stock and those stocks have continued to go down. The strange thing, I am starting to think about the "Future". Are all these companies who are laying off people to increase their earnings going to hire back again when the demand gets too big?  I sold but I could have taken bigger profits. Who knows...These companies have so much money that one of them:  Google, (Symbol goog), paid way too much for patents owned by Motorola and I got caught, because the stock went down. Many other companies have way too much money and where will that money go? Take a look at Google stock ......goog....recently. I bought on the way down so I lost. They paid too much for Motorola. But I am thinking, goog again. Goog is down 22% from the high just three weeks ago. Over the last three years I am still ahead on goog purchases. I will add back next week. Saturday August 20, 2011 8:00Am: Our event will start in three hours so we are already doing the things that are required to be ready for over 200 customers today. Most of these tasters will be picking up their 2010 Futures which were bottled last month. We will have food and videos so it will be fun. Our Pinot Noir is ready to be picked for sparkling wine. Matt will be in soon and we will pick a bucket of bunches to confirm. Yesterday I picked a few bunches and got a sugar reading of a little over 20%. We are looking for 19-20% so I am expecting that the Harvest will start next week. We have many things to do after the party Sunday so we may not start until Wednesday. I will keep all of you informed. Sunday August 21, 2011 Our event yesterday went well. We have one more day of fun and then we must set up for the Harvest. The bucket sample taken yesterday showed a brix of over 20% so we are ready to harvest our Pinot Noir for sparkling wine. Matt will take a break tomorrow and then on Tuesday we will set up for the Pinot. On Wednesday we hope to harvest about 1500 pounds but we must save some for our full bodied red Pinot to be harvested in less than two weeks so the amount harvested on Wednesday will depend on how much is harvested in the first of 6 rows.
	Dave david@coffaro.com
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